Forecasting
How StackSpend projects your month-end cloud spend, calculates days to risk, and surfaces forecast-based budget status across the dashboard and monitoring views.
What is forecasting?
StackSpend projects your month-end spend for each connected provider using historical cost data. Forecasts are recalculated automatically after every sync, so the numbers you see always reflect the latest available data.
The goal is to surface potential budget overruns before they happen — giving you time to act rather than just reporting what already occurred.
How it works
Forecasts are powered by a time-series forecasting model that learns the pattern of your historical spend. When there is insufficient history (less than 2–3 weeks of data), StackSpend automatically falls back to a rolling average so you always get an estimate, even for new providers.
Each forecast produces three values:
| Value | Description |
|---|---|
| Point estimate | The most likely month-end total |
| Lower bound | Optimistic end of the confidence interval |
| Upper bound | Pessimistic end of the confidence interval |
Where forecasts appear
Forecast data surfaces in three places across the product:
Dashboard — cost summary card
The cost summary card on the main dashboard shows your projected month-end total alongside month-to-date actuals. This gives you an at-a-glance sense of where the current month is heading.
Monitoring page — Projected month-end column
The Monitoring page includes a Projected month-end column for each provider. This shows the point estimate and the confidence interval band so you can see how wide the uncertainty is.
Budget comparison
When a provider has a budget set, StackSpend compares the forecast (not just the month-to-date actual) against the budget limit. This means a provider can show amber or red status even if current spend is low — if the trajectory suggests you will overshoot by month-end, the risk status reflects that.
Days to risk
For providers with a budget configured, StackSpend calculates the predicted date when spend will breach the budget threshold at the current trajectory. This is shown as a Days to risk value on the Monitoring page.
If the forecast does not expect a breach this month, no days-to-risk figure is shown.
Risk status
Each provider is assigned a risk status based on how the forecast compares to the budget:
| Status | Condition |
|---|---|
| Green | Forecast is below the amber threshold |
| Yellow (amber) | Forecast is at or above the amber threshold but below the red threshold (default: 80% of budget) |
| Red | Forecast is at or above the red threshold (default: 100% of budget) |
Confidence and accuracy
Forecast accuracy improves with more history. The model becomes noticeably more reliable once a provider has 4 or more weeks of data.
Providers with less than 2–3 weeks of history will show a warning indicator next to the forecast figure to flag that the estimate is based on a rolling average rather than the full ML model and may be less precise.
Configuring forecast thresholds
The amber and red threshold percentages are configurable per workspace.
Open Settings
Go to Budgets & alerts
Edit Forecast thresholds
Save